Monday, September 22, 2008

Which forecast to believe

In the second half of life will rise in price, but not as fast as in the first
Since the beginning of the second half of the republic there is improvement in the economic situation - with such an optimistic conclusion began yesterday, the head of the Ministry for Economic Development, Akylbek Japarov meeting with journalists.
Summing up the socio-economic development in January-August this year, he was primarily focused on the real growth in GDP, which compared with last year grew by 7.4 percent. This result was achieved thanks to positive trends in all sectors of the economy, except construction, where the rate of growth compared with the same period of 2007 amounted to 96.6 percent. But the sector has always demonstrated previously high rates. However, the experts say, it had a negative impact of external shocks caused by the mortgage crisis.
But industrial production has developed a good rate - 106.1 per cent, and this is without taking into account the enterprises to develop Kumtor gold deposit, in large part determine the country's GDP. Especially pleased the Minister of the results of the manufacturing industry - more than 110 percent. According to him, and progress is evident in the production of food products, textile and garment manufacturing, wood processing, pulp and paper manufacturing and other sectors.
But the negative trends in the economy of the republic: still under-growing businesses in mining, manufacturing and leather products from it, rubber and plastic products, construction materials, and machinery and equipment. Not surprisingly, the big criticism of the government are, according to Akyl-bey Zhaparova, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water. It links this mainly to malovodem and low-water-Tokto gulskom Reservoir. The amount of moisture in it now at 4.2 billion cubic meters less than last year.
Despite the disappointing forecast in early spring, is given annually yields. The production of agriculture, hunting and forestry grew by 4.5 percent. High growth rates in the industry achieved through a substantial increase in grain production, which amounted to gross collection of 884.2 thousand tons.
Separately, the head of ministry stopped on the analysis of inflation as the topic most often discussed in society. As a rule, and among experts and the public a lot of skeptics are questioning the official data on the consumer price index. So, according to the minister, since the beginning of this year reached 114.8 per cent and declined in comparison with January - July at 0.3.
And that, apparently, has led the Zhaparovu say that in the second half of «expected slowdown in inflation». This process, he connects with the adopted measures to deter, as well as with global trends the slowdown in oil prices, other energy products and grain.
Meanwhile, life still went up: An increase in the price of housing services, water, electricity, gas - together at 6 service restaurants and hotels - 6.1, services -1.6, -1 transportation, health care - 0, 9, and education - 0.6 per cent. «The main factor affecting the overall slowdown in the consumer price index in August this year, is a seasonal decline in food prices», - considers
Head of the Ministry for Economic Development.
At the same time, the inflation rate, according to government experts, will reach 20 - 22 per cent, while their independent colleagues call other numbers, more than 30 percent. In doing so, they take into account the expected rise in the cost of natural gas nearly doubled. And this factor is sure to affect the inflation process in the country, because certainly the Government will revise the tariffs on utilities and energy.
- In order to retain inflation at an acceptable level - said Japarov - our office in conjunction with the National Bank has formulated and adopted an action plan, which provides activities to achieve macroeconomic stability, strengthen fiscal discipline, improving fiscal and monetary policies, support the social vulnerable people, and others. And to ensure food security for our initiative was drafted and passed a law providing the necessary level of food production, the physical availability of food commodities, as well as commodity interventions in the context of rising inflation.
As announced recently, Prime Minister Igor Chudinov, the government will allocate a budget of 400 million soms for the purchase of 30 thousand tons of food grains of wheat, and 205 million for the purchase of 10 thousand tons of diesel fuel.

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